Although Putin and Xi probably do not agree on how the war in Ukraine should end, they agree that an apparent Russian defeat would be intolerable. It should be stated repeatedly that the war in Ukraine is existential for Europeans, and impeding Chinese intervention is a fundamental European interest. By wading into the conflict, China would lose Europe. The Question Of Chinese Military Support For Russia.
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Make The Center Vital Again.
When foreign policies have fallen into disfavor, and the domestic coalitions associated with them have splintered, leaders could find new arguments about the necessity of international openness and cooperation. Western democracies cannot return to the postwar liberal order. They can, however, search for new ways of securing the benefits that the former order brought. Make The Center Vital Again
The Consequences Of China’s Demographic Decline
China’s rapidly aging population and increasingly rigid, autocratic political system will severely hobble the country as it stumbles toward the middle of the twenty-first century. The Consequences Of China's Demographic Decline.
India Won’t Side With Washington Against Beijing
The US should undoubtedly help India to a degree compatible with American interests. But it should harbor no illusions that its support, no matter how generous, will entice India to join it in any military coalition against China. The relationship with India is fundamentally unlike those the United States enjoys with its allies. India Won’t Side With Washington Against Beijing
Ukrainian Forces In Germany
Experts say that donated MiG jets will not give Ukraine air superiority against Russia: The Ukrainians who have flown the MiG-29 describe the aircraft as an “old friend.” The jets don’t have the flashiness of newer fighters, but they play a critical role in Ukraine’s underdog air force. The MiG-29s may not be enough for Ukraine’s coming spring offensive. They are outmatched by Russian warplanes, equipped with newer radar and missile systems. Ukraine Today.
How To Spy On China
Open-source researchers have provided insights into sensitive Chinese activities, such as CCP espionage and political interference abroad. If the intelligence community can obtain more open-source intel and embrace AI-enabled tools to examine the data, its analysts can learn and share even more. If the community can recruit China experts, it will better anticipate Beijing’s actions and focus analysts’ activities and resources. Beijing’s decision-making may remain opaque, but Washington will still be able to understand China’s behavior. How To Spy On China.
Bad Advice Plaguing Beijing
Bad Advice Plaguing Beijing Pressure on Chinese President Xi to put all the pieces together. And this imperative might help explain the balloon blunder: Xi may have approved a general policy for balloon reconnaissance, perhaps years ago, with limited debate about how such a policy could backfire in the future. The possibility of such miscalculations in the coming years should cause concern for U.S. policymakers. The Chinese military may tell Xi it is ready for war, and a catastrophe could ensue if the rest of the bureaucracy is institutionally prevented from checking the military’s math. The Bad Advice Plaguing President Xi.
Why NATO Must Admit Ukraine
The best way to ensure Euro-Atlantic security is to welcome Ukraine into NATO. Politicians, diplomats, and analysts can always be counted on to develop new arguments for keeping Ukraine outside the alliance, as they have been doing for years. The good news is that each new idea is weaker than the last. The bad news is that constantly disproving them wastes precious time at the expense of people’s security. Ukraine needs NATO, and NATO needs Ukraine. Why NATO Must Admit Ukraine.
Why A Partial Victory Will Solve Little
While one can identify reasons Russia and Ukraine may have mutual optimism about war and pessimism about peace, a resolve supporting Ukraine will also help deter aggression in other parts of the world. History has its moments, and this is one of them. A Partial Victory Will Solve Little.
Ukraine Spring Offensive
According to Foreign Policy, the Russian military in occupied areas of Ukraine has already started battening the hatches for the coming counteroffensive. In the city of Berdyansk, on the northern shore of the Azov Sea, Russian troops have begun fortifying the airport with trenches and pyramidal anti-tank obstacles known as ‘dragon’s teeth.’ Occupation troops have also started digging defensive fortifications in Crimea, including at the port of Sevastopol and Belbek Air Base, which has already been hit with blasts since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began more than a year ago. The invaders have been digging in, not advancing. What’s missing are the tools to root them out. Waiting On Weapons.
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A Decentralized Russian Entity Can Reform Itself
Russia’s breakup is unlikely. In the aftermath of Putin’s disastrous war, however, the regime will face growing pressures to decentralize. The best outcome would be for local self-government, inscribed in the Russian constitution but scrapped by Putin, to become a reality. A Decentralized Entity Can Reform Itself From The Inside Out.
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A Few Countries to Look Out for the Next Six Months
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A Plethora of Authors Writing About the Covid Fallout
Michael Lewis, the author of bestsellers including the big short and liar’s poker, is taking on a topic perhaps even more corrosive than Wall Street: Coronavirus
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A Way Forward For Russia
Russia had two chances at democracy in the 20th century: first in 1917, in the months before the Bolshevik Revolution began, and again in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed. The challenges facing a post-Putin Russia appear even more daunting than those the country faced after the collapse of communism. The Way Forward For Russia.
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A Sorbid History Under Pressure
For the foreseeable future, there are no transformative solutions that the West can invent or impose on Iran, and the country will remain a profound and unpredictable threat to regional stability, U.S. interests, and its own citizenry. The protests should give the world hope: for the first time in a generation, the theocracy appears to be in jeopardy. But until the regime falls, there will be no silver bullets to stop Iran’s bad behavior. We Investigate A Sorbid History Under Pressure.
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Africa from Yesterday to Today
Roughly ten times the size of India and three times the size of China, it is home to nearly 18 percent of the world’s population and roughly 30 percent of its mineral resources. initially looking at why poverty, Africa remains the poorest continent. Yet As destructive and painful as it was, Africa’s troubled history of colonialism and Cold War meddling cannot explain all its current woes. We Detail A Way Up For Africa.
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